Future prospects

Forecast for the development of the economic environment

LUKB expects the global economy to grow moderately in 2026 and 2027. LUKB expects growth to vary by region.

Currently (12 March 2026), LUKB assumes that the military conflicts in the Middle East will remain confined in terms of time and location. For the real economy of Switzerland, the eurozone and the USA, the negative consequences of this scenario would be manageable:

• the Swiss economy has recovered in recent months with domestic demand gaining momentum. The potential negative consequences of the Iran war on the economy can thus be cushioned somewhat better than if Switzerland were to be in a weaker economic situation. Specifically, LUKB anticipates economic growth of 1.2 % for Switzerland, with inflation standing at 0.6 %. No change in the SNB policy rate is expected.
• LUKB expects moderate economic growth of 1.5 % in Europe. Inflation should even fall slightly to 1.9 %.
• The US economy is already weakened due to the increased tariffs. A temporary and local Middle East conflict would have further negative consequences for the US economy, albeit to a limited extent. GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be slightly down at 2.0 %. Inflation will continue to rise, probably to 3.2 %.
• In the emerging markets, LUKB expects GDP to fall across the board, while inflation rates are expected to be mixed.

LUKB's financial targets for the 2026 financial year

Assuming the Middle East conflict remains confined in terms of time and location, the environment for LUKB as a whole is likely to change only marginally compared with the second half of 2025.

Interest business: Growth compensates for negative effects of the zero-interest-rate environment

The zero-interest-rate environment already limited LUKB's room for manoeuvre in interest business in the second half of 2025, putting pressure on income. However, it became apparent in the fourth quarter of 2025 that LUKB would be able to maintain its profitability better than originally assumed despite the interest rate cuts. Among other things, the optimised use of the capital available for loans made it possible to increase lending profitably above budget. LUKB will continue to pursue this approach in 2026 and aim for stronger lending growth of 3.5 % to 5.5 %, which is greater than the range announced in the autumn of 2025. The corresponding additional income will compensate for the negative effects of the zero-interest-rate environment.

Investment environment favours mandate business

Last year, LUKB generated around 1,093 billion Swiss francs in new money in investment mandates. A significant proportion of this is composed of reallocated account deposits. The potential here has not yet been exhausted. With targeted advice, many clients can be offered a suitable alternative to unprofitable account balances. For instance, advisory and asset management mandates are to be expanded by at least 1.2 billion Swiss francs in this way.

Market environment offers opportunities for commission, service and trading business

The two defining themes in the LUKB environment offer various opportunities to generate higher income in the investment, advisory and trading business. The reallocation to mandates described in the previous section has had a positive impact on the commission business. The persistently volatile markets are stimulating trade and boosting demand for qualified investment advice. Under these conditions, LUKB is aiming for non-interest income of at least 240 million Swiss francs for the 2026 financial year.

Temporary slight increase in cost-income-ratio expected

During the last strategy period, LUKB invested around 50 million Swiss francs in strategic projects and is planning a similar amount for the new strategy period. Relatively higher expenses are planned in connection with this for the next two to three years. Nevertheless, LUKB would like to maintain its strategic objective of securing a cost-income-ratio of below 50 %.

Consolidated profit of 295 million Swiss francs expected for 2026

While adhering to the long-term ceiling of 50 % for the cost-income-ratio, LUKB can expect consolidated profit of at least 295 million Swiss francs for the current year 2026, which is slightly above the target published in the strategy communication in the autumn.

Overview of targets for 2030 and 2026

LUKB has once again set very ambitious targets for the 2026 to 2030 strategy period. The targets for 2026 were already raised slightly in February 2026. The targets for the years 2026 and 2030 are currently as follows: